研究背景与目的

我国人口老龄化、少子化趋势加剧，给中国式现代化的进程带来一系列重大挑战。因此，党和政府提出完善生育支持政策。鉴于生育意愿与生育率密切相关，对我国育龄人群生育意愿及其影响因素的研究十分重要。同时，随着辅助生殖技术的不断发展和普及，生育意愿的内涵与外延也发生了变化。旨在弥补以往对生育意愿的研究大都基于自然妊娠过程的考量这一局限性，本研究增加了对女性冻卵技术接受意愿的调查，从而为完善我国生育支持政策提供更加开阔的战略视野和更加全面的科学依据。

研究内容与方法

通过综合运用问卷调查和文献综述等方法，本研究旨在精确描绘当前我国育龄人群的生育意愿分布图谱，识别生育意愿低下的主要群体及关键影响因素，重点分析了经济负担、社会支持、家庭支持以及心理因素对生育意愿的影响作用。此外，针对未婚女性及其他有冻卵需求的群体，本研究进一步探索其对冻卵技术的态度及驱动因素，并评估公众对放开未婚女性冻卵政策的支持程度。

本研究的调查数据来源于2022年和2024年开展的“中国居民心理与行为调查”，采用logistic回归和多重线性回归模型，分别分析15-49岁居民的生育一孩意愿情况(2022年)以及大众对未婚女性冻卵政策的支持态度(2024年)。通过定量数据分析，揭示不同人口学特征和社会心理变量对生育意愿及冻卵接受度的影响。

研究结果与发现

我国育龄人群的生育意愿整体低迷，而对未婚女性冻卵的支持态度则相对积极。具体而言，2022年15-49岁居民生育一孩意愿平均得分为42.51(评分范围：0-100)，其中17.33%的受访者表示无生育意愿，仅9.54%有较高生育意愿。首次生育意愿在30-34岁达到高峰，且男性、无兄弟姐妹、家庭沟通较差及自我效能感较低者生育意愿显著更低。不同年龄组的影响因素各异：15-24岁组人群的生育意愿似乎主要受家庭和社会支持影响，个人层面的因素影响25-29岁组人群生育意愿的程度更大，而30-39岁组人群的生育意愿好像更依赖于经济和婚姻的稳定。

关于冻卵支持态度，2024年数据显示，15-49岁居民对未婚女性冻卵的支持平均得分为63.63(评分范围：0-100)，强烈支持者占17.83%，完全不支持者仅3.67%。多因素分析表明，地区差异显著，香港、澳门、台湾地区接受度最高，而西部和东北地区较低；年龄方面，18-24岁群体接受度低于45-49岁；女性显著高于男性；教育水平越高，接受度也越高；核心家庭、单亲家庭和单身家庭的接受度高于夫妻家庭；双性恋和无性恋群体的接受度较高，而其他性取向群体较低。此外，接种非国家免疫规划疫苗、社会地位较高、EQ-VAS分数、高健康素养、高焦虑水平及高感知社会支持均与冻卵接受度呈正相关。

研究结论与建议

我国目前育龄期人群的生育意愿较为低迷，尤其在年轻一代中表现突出。建议从经济支持、社会环境优化、法律法规调整以及科普宣传等方面入手，进一步提升育龄人群的生育意愿。鉴于公众对未婚女性冻卵的支持度已经较高，建议决策者考虑适当放宽对冻卵技术服务的限制条件，以便更好地构建生育友好型社会。

Background and Purpose

The aging of China's population and the intensification of the trend towards fewer children have posed a series of major challenges to the process of Chinese-style modernization, and the Party and the Government have therefore proposed to improve the fertility support policy. In view of the fact that fertility intentions are closely related to the fertility rate, the study of fertility intentions and their influencing factors in China's childbearing age population has become very important. Meanwhile, with the continuous development and popularization of assisted reproductive technology, the connotation and extension of fertility intentions have also changed. In order to make up for the limitation that most of the previous studies on fertility intentions are based on the consideration of the natural pregnancy process, this study adds a survey on women's willingness to accept egg freezing technology, so as to provide a broader strategic vision and a more comprehensive scientific basis for the improvement of China's fertility support policy.

Content and Methods

Through the comprehensive use of questionnaire survey and literature review, this study aims to accurately map the distribution of fertility intentions of the current reproductive age population in China, and to identify the main groups with low fertility intentions and the key influencing factors. This study focuses on analyzing the effects of economic burden, social support, family support and psychological factors on fertility intentions. In addition, for unmarried women and other groups with a demand for egg freezing, this study further explores their attitudes and drivers of egg freezing technology and assesses the degree of public support for the policy of liberalizing egg freezing for unmarried women.

The survey data for this study were obtained from the “Survey on the Psychology and Behavior of Chinese Residents” conducted in 2022 and 2024. Logistic regression and multiple linear regression models were used to analyze the willingness of residents aged 15-49 to have a child (in 2022) and the supportive attitudes toward egg freezing for unmarried women (in 2024), respectively. 2024). Through quantitative data analysis, the effects of different demographic characteristics and psychosocial variables on fertility intentions and acceptance of egg freezing were revealed.

Results and Findings

The overall fertility intention of China's reproductive age population is low, while the supportive attitude towards egg freezing among unmarried women is relatively positive. Specifically, the average score of residents aged 15-49 years old's willingness to have one child in 2022 is 42.51 (scale range: 0-100), of which 17.33% of the respondents indicated that they had no desire to have children, and only 9.54% had a high desire to have children. Intention to have a first child peaked at the age of 30-34 years and was significantly lower among males, those without siblings, those with poorer family communication and those with lower self-efficacy. Influencing factors varied by age group: fertility intentions in the 15-24 age group seemed to be mainly influenced by family and social support, factors at the individual level influenced fertility intentions to a greater extent in the 25-29 age group, and fertility intentions in the 30-39 age group seemed to be more dependent on economic and marital stability.

Regarding egg freezing supportive attitudes, the 2024 data showed that the average score of support for egg freezing among unmarried women among residents aged 15-49 was 63.63 (scale range: 0-100), with 17.83% strongly supporting the idea and only 3.67% not supporting it at all. Multi-factor analysis shows that there are significant regional differences, with Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan having the highest acceptance, while the western and northeastern regions have lower acceptance; in terms of age, the acceptance of the 18-24 age group is lower than that of the 45-49 age group; females are significantly more likely than males; the higher the level of education, the higher the acceptance; the acceptance of nuclear, single-parent and single-person families is higher than that of couple families; the acceptance of bisexual and asexual groups is higher and lower for other sexual orientation groups. In addition, receipt of non-National Immunization Program vaccines, higher social status, EQ-VAS scores, high health literacy, high anxiety levels, and high perceived social support were all positively associated with acceptance of egg freezing.

Conclusion and Recommendations

China's current fertility intentions of people of childbearing age are relatively low, especially prominent among the younger generation. It is recommended that economic support, optimization of the social environment, adjustment of laws and regulations, as well as popularization of science and publicity should be taken into account to further enhance the fertility intention of the reproductive age group. Given the high level of public support for egg freezing among unmarried women, it is recommended that policymakers consider appropriately relaxing the restrictions on egg freezing services in order to better build a fertility-friendly society.